Noah Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Brown's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, totaling 3.6 yards per game vs a mere 1.7 last season.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus wide receivers this year (69.2%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 56.1% pass rate.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense this week (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.8% in games he has played).

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