Noah Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
This year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been torched for a staggering 183.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 5th-most in football.
This year, the weak Buccaneers defense has given up the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a monstrous 5.64 YAC.

Favors Under

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

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