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Noah Brown
NFL · Player Props
Noah Brown
WR · Dallas Cowboys
Receiving Yards
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022 Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:20 PM UTC
NFL Props Noah Brown Receiving Yards

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (+105/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -150.

Favors Over
  • The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Noah Brown has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a terrific 77.6% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Favors Under
  • The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be much less involved in his team's air attack this week (13.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played).
  • The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on a lowly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
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