Noah Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 27, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to garner 6.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The New York Giants pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, allowing 7.74 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.02 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.
The New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.