Noah Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Noah Brown has put up far more air yards this season (51.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 57.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this week (7.9% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.2% in games he has played).
Noah Brown has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing a mere 62.5% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile among wideouts
Noah Brown's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, totaling a measly 2.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.25 figure last season.

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