Noah Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Noah Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (78.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (29.7%).
Noah Brown has accrued many more air yards this season (51.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Noah Brown has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing just 62.5% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile among wideouts
Noah Brown's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this season, averaging just 2.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.25 mark last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63.4%) to WRs this year (63.4%).

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