Noah Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Noah Brown has run fewer routes this season (82.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (29.7%).
Noah Brown has posted many more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Noah Brown has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (21.0).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Noah Brown's talent in picking up extra yardage have worsened this season, notching just 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.25 mark last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.5%) versus WRs this year (63.5%).

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