Noah Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Brown has notched far more air yards this season (61.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
Noah Brown has totaled significantly more receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).
Noah Brown has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging an impressive 9.68 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus wide receivers this year (69.2%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 56.1% pass rate.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense this week (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.8% in games he has played).

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