Noah Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+282/-485).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +286 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +282.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Noah Brown has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (18.0 per game).
Noah Brown's 42.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 12.4.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.5%) vs. WRs this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (17.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (36.8% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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