Noah Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Noah Brown's 50.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 12.4.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Noah Brown has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a terrific 77.6% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (17.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (62.5% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on a lowly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.