Noah Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 27, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+237/-390).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +327 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +237.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (24.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.0% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a measly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.