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Noah Brown

Noah Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+383/-794).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

Noah Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which places him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.

Noah Brown has posted many more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).

Noah Brown's 34.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 11.5.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.5%) versus WRs this year (63.5%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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