Noah Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+391/-822).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -539 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -822.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Noah Brown has accumulated many more air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Noah Brown's 39.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 11.5.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst DE corps in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a less important option in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (14.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.9% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 2nd-least passing TDs in the league to wide receivers: 0.50 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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