Noah Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+347/-672).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -554 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -672.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Noah Brown has compiled many more air yards this year (57.0 per game) than he did last year (18.0 per game).
Noah Brown's 41.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 12.4.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (15.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.7% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a lowly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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