Noah Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+323/-598).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -544 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -598.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Brown has notched far more air yards this season (61.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
Noah Brown's 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 12.4.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus wide receivers this year (69.2%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be much less involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (16.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (36.4% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 8th-least passing TDs in the league to wideouts: 0.67 per game this year.

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