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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 61.3% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see 136.5 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

In this week's contest, Nico Collins is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.1 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Texans grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 71.9% to 67.0%.

The Chiefs linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

More Nico Collins Player Props

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