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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Texans being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 62.3% of their downs: the highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

In this week's game, Nico Collins is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.2 targets.

Nico Collins's 65.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 54.3.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are predicted by the predictive model to run only 63.6 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Texans ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.

Nico Collins's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 71.9% to 67.2%.

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.

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