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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

The model projects Nico Collins to accumulate 10.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Texans to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Houston Texans grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.

Nico Collins's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 71.9% to 66.5%.

This year, the formidable Ravens defense has yielded a measly 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 9th-best rate in the league.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

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