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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Texans.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 26.84 seconds per snap.

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

The model projects Nico Collins to accrue 9.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Nico Collins's 66.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 52.5.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Texans grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year.

Nico Collins's 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a substantial reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 71.9% rate.

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