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Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/+100).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -130.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Texans have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.The model projects Nico Collins to earn 8.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.Nico Collins's 64.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 52.5.Nico Collins checks in as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 5.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 8-point advantage, the Texans are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their normal approach.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.The Houston offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.This year, the imposing Tennessee Titans defense has given up a puny 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.
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