Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-155/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Nico Collins's 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 80th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Texans as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the league.
The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of LBs has been exceptional since the start of last season, projecting as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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