Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 132.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Nico Collins to total 7.9 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's CB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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