Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Nico Collins's 42.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 34.7.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Nico Collins has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 54.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 19th percentile among wide receivers
The Houston Texans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.