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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+121/-161).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Nico Collins's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 34.7.

Nico Collins's receiving performance has been refined this season, totaling 3.4 yards per game vs a mere 2.3 last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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