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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 78.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to pass on 59.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

The most plays in the league have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a massive 63.2 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

In this week's contest, Nico Collins is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 9.0 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 122.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Nico Collins's ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this year, notching a mere 5.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.78 rate last year.

The Bills defense has yielded the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 95.0) versus WRs this year.

The Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.24 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the fewest in the NFL.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo's unit has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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