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Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 87.5 (-120/-110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 87.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 87.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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A passing game script is indicated by the Texans being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 62.3% of their downs: the highest frequency among all teams this week.The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.In this week's game, Nico Collins is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.2 targets.After accumulating 84.0 air yards per game last season, Nico Collins has produced significantly more this season, now sitting at 102.0 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are predicted by the predictive model to run only 63.6 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Texans ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.Nico Collins's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 71.9% to 67.2%.Nico Collins's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 9.09 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 11.04 rate last season.Nico Collins's talent in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, averaging a mere 5.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 mark last season.
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