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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 86.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 86.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3.5-point underdogs.

The projections expect the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The predictive model expects Nico Collins to earn 9.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Nico Collins's 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 71.9% rate.

Nico Collins's 9.5 adjusted yards per target this season reflects a noteable decline in his pass-catching talent over last season's 11.0 figure.

Nico Collins's 5.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates a noteworthy drop-off in his effectiveness in space over last year's 6.8% rate.

This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a measly 7.8 yards.

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