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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 89.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 89.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.66 seconds per snap.

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

In this week's contest, Nico Collins is anticipated by the model to slot into the 97th percentile among wide receivers with 10.0 targets.

After accruing 81.0 air yards per game last year, Nico Collins has posted big gains this year, now pacing 102.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

As it relates to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Texans grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year.

Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 71.9% to 66.6%.

Nico Collins's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a mere 10.00 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 11.04 mark last season.

This year, the fierce Dolphins defense has conceded a puny 135.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

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