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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 72.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 78.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The model projects Nico Collins to earn 8.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

After accumulating 81.0 air yards per game last year, Nico Collins has seen marked improvement this year, now boasting 102.0 per game.

Nico Collins's 64.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 52.5.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 8-point advantage, the Texans are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their normal approach.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.

The Houston offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

The Titans defense has yielded the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 119.0) versus WRs this year.

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