Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
In this week's game, Nico Collins is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.9 targets.
Nico Collins has totaled a colossal 85.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

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