Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to total 8.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Nico Collins has compiled a monstrous 86.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

The Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Texans.
The Saints pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58%) to wide receivers this year (58.0%).
The Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, surrendering 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.
The Saints linebackers project as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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