Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The leading projections forecast Nico Collins to total 7.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
After accruing 82.0 air yards per game last season, Nico Collins has posted big gains this season, currently boasting 101.0 per game.
Nico Collins's 58.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 85th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.7% pass rate.
This year, the tough Falcons defense has yielded a meager 115.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 3rd-fewest in football.
The Falcons safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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