Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to accrue 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among WRs.
Nico Collins has accumulated a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.1% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best CB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.