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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 74.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 75.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Texans as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Texans are projected by our trusted projection set to call 69.4 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.

The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 60.0 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

In this week's contest, Nico Collins is expected by the model to finish in the 97th percentile among WRs with 10.2 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Colts, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 33.6 per game) this year.

The Colts defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 141.0) vs. WRs this year.

This year, the daunting Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a paltry 3.1 YAC.

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