Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have 132.0 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this week's game, Nico Collins is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.3 targets.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Texans profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans offensive scheme to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Cardinals, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.6 per game) this year.

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