Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to total 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
Nico Collins has accumulated a monstrous 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Nico Collins's 52.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 79th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Nico Collins has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 57.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 9th percentile among wideouts