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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

Nico Collins has accounted for a colossal 21.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 8.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the NFL.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.96 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 10th-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.

The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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