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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Nico Collins has notched far more air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).

Nico Collins's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 34.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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