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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+246/-398).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +278 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +246.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans are a huge 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (16.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
  • Nico Collins has put up significantly more air yards this season (78.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Nico Collins grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
  • The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
  • The Houston Texans have used motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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