Nico Collins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+246/-398).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +278 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +246.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a huge 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (16.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
Nico Collins has put up significantly more air yards this season (78.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).

Favors Under

Nico Collins grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans have used motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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