Nico Collins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+293/-514).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -507 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -514.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (17.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
Nico Collins has put up far more air yards this year (79.0 per game) than he did last year (49.0 per game).
Nico Collins's 44.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 34.7.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Nico Collins has been among the worst possession receivers in football, hauling in a measly 54.9% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 18th percentile among wideouts
Nico Collins grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.