Nico Collins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+293/-514).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +311 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +293.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (19.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.6% in games he has played).
Nico Collins has accounted for a colossal 21.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 1.26 per game since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 6th-worst group of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 10th-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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