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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+244/-393).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +305 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +244.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to be a more important option in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (23.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.6% in games he has played).

Nico Collins has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).

Nico Collins's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 34.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Houston Texans offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

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