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Nico Collins
NFL · Player Props
Nico Collins
WR · Houston Texans
Receiving TD
Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022 Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC
NFL Props Nico Collins Receiving TD

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+283/-489).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +291 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +283.

Favors Over
  • The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Nico Collins has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.4% this year, which places him in the 78th percentile among WRs.
  • Nico Collins has notched far more air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).
  • Nico Collins's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 34.7.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
  • The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
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