Nico Collins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+283/-489).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +291 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +283.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Nico Collins has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.4% this year, which places him in the 78th percentile among WRs.
Nico Collins has notched far more air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).
Nico Collins's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 34.7.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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