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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+276/-469).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +301 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +276.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to be a more important option in his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (20.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.6% in games he has played).

The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 3rd-most passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 1.24 per game since the start of last season.

The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.

The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Nico Collins has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, completing just 54.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 4th percentile among wide receivers

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (61.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (61.8%).

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