Nick Westbrook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Nick Westbrook

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Westbrook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+123/-153).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to be much more involved in his team's air attack this week (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.5% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.