Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Nick Westbrook

NFL · Player Props

Nick Westbrook

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Nick Westbrook has been a much smaller part of his team's offense this year, playing on just 61.2% of snaps compared to 73.1% last year.
Nick Westbrook's 39.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year represents a a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 25.0 mark.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (57.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Titans.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
After averaging 38.0 air yards per game last season, Nick Westbrook has fallen off this season, currently sitting at 31.0 per game.
The the Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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