Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Nick Westbrook

NFL · Player Props

Nick Westbrook

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Nick Westbrook's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 57.6% to 72.6%.
Nick Westbrook's receiving efficiency has been refined this season, compiling 9.87 yards-per-target compared to just 8.24 rate last season.
Nick Westbrook has been among the best WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.56 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.

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