Nick Westbrook Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Nick Westbrook

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Westbrook Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+437/-1000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -676 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1000.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (14.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.0% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.9% to 58.8%.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine grades out in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.