Nick Foles TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Nick Foles

NFL · Player Props

Nick Foles

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Nick Foles TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-285/+205).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be starting backup QB Nick Foles in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 60.3 plays per game.
Nick Foles has been among the most on-target passers in football since the start of last season with a terrific 72.3% Completion%, checking in at the 98th percentile.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 54.7% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in the league versus the New York Giants defense this year (67.4%).
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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