Nick Foles TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Nick Foles

NFL · Player Props

Nick Foles

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 27, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Foles TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-199).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -162 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -199.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.50 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 53.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Foles to attempt 37.2 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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